This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card with 2 title fights in Toronto, Canada. We’re back to having PPV sized competitions on DraftKings this week and there are some solid GPPs to pursue this week. The main GPP is a $10 entrance with $25,000 to 1st place. These are always my favourite competitions to pursue so I’ll be taking some shots in that. Aside from that, I will adhere to my 3-entry max & solitary entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and that I will get a fantastic amount of play in games. With that said, here are a Couple of plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ might be the simplest cash game punt of all time in $6.8k. The line for Fight Goes To Conclusion is now -195 and when we are getting 5-rounds out of JJ using the striking volume she puts out then we’ve got a good floor there also and it doesn’t matter if she wins or loses. At that price tag she lets you cover up for some heavy favorites and if we could get 4 other areas to win with a ~40-point loss from JJ within our lineup then we’ll be sitting quite pretty in our money games this weekend.
GPP play of this week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Does Not Go To Conclusion is presently lined at -495 for this fight. The most probable outcome is that somebody in this struggle gets hauled out in 15-minutes. With that knock-out probably comes in one 10-point knock down. If that can be in the 1st round, then you are currently at 100-points even if it’s merely the 1st punch/kick of the evening. At $8.8k that is more than enough to offer you a chance at 1st place in a GPP. Thiago is the favorite in this fight and Manuwa is 38-years old now, so he can not have much time in the match left. I believe we role with the favored here and toss him into our GPP lineups and then await the fireworks.
Underdog play of this week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of the week because of his wrestling/grappling possible. In addition, I think he is a underdog here. Lopez dropped his last 2 fights by knockout, so that’s really what I’d worry about most with him Brad Katona is most likely the better striker of both but he has never knocked out anybody, so I believe we have a good floor here at $7.3k even if this struggle does stay standing because I don’t see Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is probably the better wrestler of the two though and I think he lands several takedowns in this fight and may win a decision with a wrestling-heavy game program. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns per 15-minutes at a 57 percent accuracy, and if he’s becoming bogged up on the feet I am certain that he will be going for much more than that here. At $7.3k I think Lopez makes for a solid play in all formats and I believe he gets a split decision win here since the street underdog.
Fade of this week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I am fading a couple of fighters this week personally, but the individual I never even considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It is not that I don’t think she could win, because she for certain can, and I believe she does. But I do not see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a win. I believe we’d need a finish from her in this struggle to receive 10x that wages and I believe that’s quite unlikely to take place. Or, she’ll need FightMetric to rely all of her screams as significant strikes. The most Chookagian has ever scored in a UFC fight up to now in her career is 83 DK points and that was against Irene Aldana who places a much higher rate than Jessica Eye does. Even though she could get 83-points here afterward that still wouldn’t be sufficient here to put her at the winning lineup in her $8.7k price tag. I think if you are earning 20 or less lineups this Saturday you can safely fade Chookagian and if she’s a triumph it shouldn’t hurt much.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and also give my entire DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my select predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below: